Opening Betting Line : Mavericks +5 / Heat -5
Over/Under : 187
Game Time : 8 PM Sunday June 12, 2011 on ABC
While Dirk Nowitzki stepped up and performed well in the clutch, 4th quarter, in the Mavs Game 5 win LeBron James did not. Nowitzki had 8 points in the final period hitting all 6 of his free throws while James only had 2 points and it was with only a few seconds left with the game already over. King James has averaged 2.2 ppg in the 4th quarter in this series and he has to step up when it counts. In the loss James did have a triple double, but it was all for not in the loss.
The Heat are not a high scoring team and they hang their hat on their defense. However, in Game 5 they allowed Dallas to shoot a scorching FG% of 56.5% and hit 13 of their 19 3-pointers.
Dallas won Game 5 over Miami 112-103 and the Mavs covered the spread and for the first time in the series the total went Over.
This season the Mavs are 58-40-4 ATS and the Heat are 52-48-2 ATS.
The Heat must play better defense in Game 6, especially on the perimeter, as in Game 5 Shaun Marion was the only starter for Dallas that did not shoot at least 50% from the field and super 6th man Jason Terry was clutch scoring 21 points on 8/12 shooting and 3/5 beyond the 3-point arc.
The losses in this series by the Heat have been because of their play in the 4th quarter. In Game 5 the Mavs outscored the Heat 17-4 in the final 4:23 of the game.
James could not hit his outside jumper in Game 5 and he and Dwyane Wade shot a combined 16.7% from 15+ feet, which their lowest combined total in this season’s playoffs. Wade left the game with a hip injury but returned and should be OK to go in Game 6.
Wade and Chris Bosh combined for 42 points in game 5 each shooting a solid 50% from the floor, but all of the Big 3 has to play well for the Heat to win. I mean the Heat bench combined to score 40 points in the game and Miami still lost.
For the 2nd straight game Nowitzki got help on offense with 4 other Dallas players scoring in double figures and he will need help again in Game 6. However, that may be more difficult, as Miami will play better defense.
On some betting trends for Game 6:
The Mavs are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 road games, 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog, and they have an Under record of 4-1-1 in their last 6 games.
The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, and has an Over record of 6-1-1 in their last 8 home games.
Our Selection : Look for both teams to focus on D in this game after both the Heat and the Mavs shot over 54% in Game 5. Take Under 187 points at Bodog where you can bet on Sports and play Poker!(US players included).
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