Opening Betting Line : Heat +1 / Celtics -1
Over/Under : 183
Game Time : 8 PM EST Monday May 9, 2011 on TNT
After failing to play much defense in the first 2 games of the series Boston got back to their bread and butter of playing shut-down defense in winning Game 3. In Game 3 the Celtics held the Heat to 42.5% shooting and held them to a 3-point FG% of 21.7%. Kevin Garnett was a monster in Game 3 scoring 28 points and grabbing 18 rebounds and the Celtics played tough basketball in the game taking a cue from Rajon Rondo, who played after dislocating his elbow.
The Celtics won Game 3 97-81 and they easily covered the spread with the total going Under.
This season the Celtics are 41-46-2 ATS and the Heat are 44-45-1 ATS. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games between these 2 teams.
Rajon Rondo and Delonte West will both be game-time decisions tonight, but each should play since they fought through injuries to play in Game 3.
The Celtics have beaten the Heat in all 3 home games this season.
Dwayne Wade was the only player in the Heat’s big 3 to play a decent Game 3 with 23 points on 8/19 shooting while LeBron James (15 points 6/16 shooting) and Chris Bosh (6 points 1/6 shooting) really struggled. Since Miami does not have many scorers on their team these guys have to play well and score for the Heat to win tonight.
After combining for 80 points in Game 2 Wade, Bosh, and James only combined to score 44 points in Game 4 and none shot over 50% from the floor. If that happens again the Celtics will win and head back to Miami tied in this series.
The Heat have to take a page out of the Celtics’ playbook and get back to playing good defense, as they allowed the Celtics to shoot 50% from the floor in Game 3. Paul Pierce scored 27 points and hit on 5 of his 7 3-pointers in Game 3 and Ray Allen chipped in with 15.
Both teams win with their solid defense and that is the key tonight. The Heat really have to key on KG and not let him dominate in the paint again and they cannot allow the Celtics to shoot 50% from beyond the 3-point line like they did in Game 3.
In some betting trends for this Game 4:
Miami is 2 ATS in their last 8 road games, 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, and they have an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
Boston is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage above 60%, and has an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
Miami is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against the Celtics in Boston.
Our Selection : It was nice seeing the Celtics finally play some defense and that's what we expect them to do again tonight. While we don't see them dominating like they did in Game 3 we certainly will take a team with only 8 losses on the season at home who only needs to win the game. Take the Celtics +1 at Bodog.
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat Odds 6-12
The Mavs are up 3-2 in this series heading to South Beach and for the Heat to force Game 7 they will have to play better in the 4th quarter, especially LeBron James. 5Dimes has the hometown Heat as 5-point favorites in Game 6 with a total of 187.
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