Opening Betting Line : Heat +3 / Mavericks -3
Over/Under : 187.5
Game Time : 9 PM EST Sunda May 31, 2011 on ABC
When Dwayne Wade knocked down a 3-pointer to give the Heat a 15-point lead with a little over 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter it looked as if Game 2 was in the bag for Miami. However, the Mavs went on a huge run and ended up scoring the last 9 points of the game to win by 2.
Dirk Nowitzki did not look as if his injured finger affected him scoring 24 points and grabbing 11 boards in the Game 2 win and he also scored the game-winning basket. After struggling with their shot in Game 1 Game 2 was a different story, as the Mavs shot 48% from the floor. Miami has to get back to playing good D, especially down the stretch or they will lose Game 3 and likely the series.
In Game 2 the Mavs beat the Heat 95-93 and Dallas covered the spread with the total going Over.
This season the Heat are 51-47-1 ATS and the Mavs are 57-39-3 ATS.
The Game 2 loss was the first home loss of the Heat in Miami in this post-season.
If the Heat do not play their usual great defense they need solid games from all of their Big 3 to win and that was not the case in Game 2. Dwyane Wade and LeBron James did their part combining for 56 points on a combined 21/36 shooting, but Chris Bosh only scored 12 points on ice-cold 4/16 shooting.
Nowitzki got some help on offense with Shaun Marion, Tyson Chandler, and Jason Terry combining for 49 points, but for the 2nd straight game in this series the Mavs’ bench struggled. Terry scored 16 points on 5/11 shooting, but the rest of the bench only combined to score 7 points.
The Heat must attack the rim and get to the free throw line and in Game 2 after they had a big 4th quarter lead they settled for long jumpers and their cold shooting in that stretch cost them the game. In a telling stat the Heat were 17/26 inside 15 feet entering the 4th quarter, but in the final period they were only 4/18 inside 15 feet.
Game 2 was the 2nd time in the post-season where the Mavs have come back from 15 points in the 4th quarter and won.
In some betting trends for Game 3:
Miami is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss, and they have an Over record of 5-1 in Heat last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
Dallas is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games, 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall, and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
In the last 6 games between these 2 teams the Over record is 4-1-1.
Our Selection : The big question here is whether the Miami Heat will be able to recover from blowing a 15 point lead in the last 6:20. We beleive that they will. The Heat were easily the best team up until that point and maybe got a little too confident. We look for them to continue to play solid defense in Game 3 and we're getting some good line value with Dallas opening as a 3-point favorite. Take Miami +3 at Bodog where you can bet on Sports and play Poker!(US players included).
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