Opening Betting Line : Heat +2 / Mavericks -2
Over/Under : 185.5
Game Time : PM Thursday June 9, 2011 on ABC
Game 4 was the 3rd straight game that the Mavs came back big in the 4th quarter and Dirk Nowitzki was the star, yet again, scoring 10 of his 21 points in the final period even though he was battling illness. What’s up with the Heat in the 4th quarter? They were outscored 21-9 in the last 10 minutes of the game and LeBron James did not take a shot in the final period. Overall, James only had 8 points on 3/11 shooting and he summed it up perfectly after the game stating, "I've got to do a better job of being more assertive offensively.”
The Heat lost Game 4 even though they played solid D, well for most of the game, holding the Mavs to a FG% of only 39.7%.
Game 4 was won by the Mavs 86-83 with a push with Dallas favored by 3 points and the posted total going Under.
This season the Mavs are 57-40-4 ATS and the Heat are 52-47-2 ATS. The underdog is 3-1-1 in the last 5 games between these 2 teams.
Once again the Heat deviated from their game plan and settled for jumpers in the 4th quarter, as in Game 4 they were missed their last 9 shots from 15+ feet, which is the most misses from Miami in the last 10 minutes of a game this season.
Nowitzki was only 6/19 from the field and he did not start playing well until the 4th quarter, but that is when it counted. Miami must play better D on the big German down the stretch in Game 5 and they have to keep attacking the rim late in the game.
Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade combined to score 56 points in Game 4 being the only players for the Heat that scored in double figures and this series has shown all of the Big 3 must play well on offense to win since they do not have many other scoring options.
Even though the Mavs did not shoot a good FG% the other players finally stepped up to help Nowitzki out on offense with 4 other players scoring in double figures. Also, for the first time in the series the bench had a decent scoring game combining for 28 points.
LeBron did not have a good scoring game 4 and the Heat did not shoot the 3-pointer well (2/14), but for Game 5 it all comes down to how they play in the 4th quarter on both sides of the floor. I mean Wade, James and Bosh scored 9 points and had 5 turnovers in the 4th quarter in Game 4.
In some betting trends for Game 5:
Miami is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss, and has an Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 road games.
Dallas is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games, 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win, and has an Under record of 4-0-1 in their last 5 games.
In this series there is an Under record of 3-0-1.
Our Selection :Sure the series is tied at two games a piece, but against the spread the Mavericks have only covered the spread in one of the four. While we were hoping for more than a basket in this spot, we still have to side with the Heat (2-1-1 ATS) who's only point spread loss was in the infamous Game 2 4th quarter collapse. Take Miami +2 at Bodog where you can bet on Sports and play Poker!(US players included).
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat Odds 6-12
The Mavs are up 3-2 in this series heading to South Beach and for the Heat to force Game 7 they will have to play better in the 4th quarter, especially LeBron James. 5Dimes has the hometown Heat as 5-point favorites in Game 6 with a total of 187.
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