Opening Betting Line : Thunder +6.5 / Mavericks -6.5
Over/Under : 198.5
Game Time : 9 PM EST Wednesday May 25, 2011 on ESPN
The Mavs never had a lead in Game 4 until 16 seconds into the OT period and they now have a ton of momentum heading into Game 5 at home where they can close out the series. Kevin Durant was the high scorer for the Thunder with 29 points and even though he came out on fire early he shot 9/22 from the floor and after missing a 3-pointer in the beginning of the OT period he did not take another shot until 10 seconds left in OT. Dirk Nowitzki scored 40 points in the game and came up huge in the Mavs 4th quarter rally and he was 14/15 from the charity stripe.
The Thunder have to get over the Game 4 tough loss and win in the Big D on Wednesday night in order to stay alive in this series.
In Game 4 the Mavs beat the Thunder 112-105 in OT and they covered the spread with the posted total going Over.
This season the Mavs are 56-37-3 ATS and the Thunder are 50-46-2 ATS. The Thunder are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games facing the Mavs.
After Thunder G James Harden fouled out Oklahoma stopped using the pick and roll and they settled for outside J’s. That was the reason Dallas was able to make their big comeback and the Thunder have to keep attacking the rim all game long in Game 5.
Russell Westbrook continued his struggles in this series in Game 4 going for 19 points on 7/22 shooting. He and Durant combined for 15 turnovers and the Thunder had 25 total in the game and that cannot happen in Dallas in Game 5 or they will not be going home for Game 6. They also need to shoot the rock better from deep after only nailing 2 of their 13 3-pointers.
Jason Terry and Jason Kidd, who combined to score 37 points in Game 4, helped out Nowitzki on offense. Terry was only 7/19 from the floor, but both Dirk and Kidd shot over 50% from the field. Overall, the Mavs shot a FG% of 43.2%.
The Thunder out rebounded the Mavericks 55-33 in the Game 4 loss and that was the biggest rebounding advantage from a losing team in the playoffs since 1986.
In some betting trends for this Game 5:
Oklahoma City is 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 road games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss, and they have an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Dallas is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games, 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest, and they have an Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
Our Selection : The Mavericks are 9-1 straight up and against the spread in their last 10 games and we don't see Dallas not winning here. We would have preferred a 6 or less point spread line to make this a best bet, but the Mavericks still will be a play for us tonight. Take Dallas -6.5 at Bodog.
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