Opening Betting Lines: Spurs +4.5 / Mavericks -4.5 O/U 194
Time: 8 PM EST Sunday April 18, 2010 on TNT
Tonight in a 1st round playoff match up in the Lone Star State the Western Conference 2nd seed Dallas Mavericks host the 7th seed San Antonio Spurs. Dallas won 3 of 4 games against San Antonio and this season they are the higher seed, but last year they were the lower seed and upset the Spurs in the 1st round.
Both teams ended the regular season well, as the Mavs won their last 5 games and went 8-2 in their last 10 games and the Spurs lost their last game and were 6-4 in their last 10 games. The Last game of the season meant nothing to the Spurs and they rested their big guns, but went 5-1 down the stretch against playoff teams.
This season the Mavs are 28-13 at home and 36-44-2 ATS and the Spurs are 21-20 on the road and 43-39 on the road.
These 2 teams met in the last game of the regular season with Dallas winning 96-89.
Tony Parker missed a big chunk of the 2nd half with a hand injury and even when he returned he came off the bench because backup PG George Hill played so well. Hill has an ankle injury and he will be game time decision for tonight's game.
Whoever plays point for the Spurs has to try to slow down the Mavs and Jason Kidd, as if Dallas gets out on the break and runs they are tough to beat.
The Spurs were a much better team on the boards this season, as they had a rebounding differential of +3.3 rpg while Dallas was only at -1.2 rpg. The Dallas C duo of Brendan Hayward and Erick Dampier will have to hit the boards hard and especially keep Tim Duncan (17.9 ppg and 10.1 rpg) from dominating the glass.
Dallas' Caron Butler (16.3 ppg) has to give the Mavs some offense, but his D on Manu Ginobili (16.5 ppg) is also important, as with Parker out in the 2nd half Ginobili averaged around 10 more ppg than his season average.
Parker and Ginobili will have to hit their outside shots tonight so Tim Duncan has room to operate in the lane.
Dirk Nowitzki (25 ppg 7.7 rpg) will get his points tonight, but the Spurs will have to keep Butler, Jason Terry (16.6 ppg), and Shawn Marion (12 ppg) from having big games on offense.
If this game is a high scoring one the Mavs have the advantage, but if it is a low scoring defensive affair the Spurs have the edge.
Betting Trends
San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5, 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games, and has an Under record of 6-1-1 in their last 8 road games.
Dallas is 7-28-1 ATS in their last 36 home games, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record, and has an Under record of 6-1 in their last 7 home games.
San Antonio is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Dallas.
Our Selection : Here's an interesting stat for you. The Mavericks have covered the spread in all of their last 9 victories. I don't see Dallas losing here and I'm not going to buck the trend. Take the Mavericks-5 at Bodog.
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat Odds 6-12
The Mavs are up 3-2 in this series heading to South Beach and for the Heat to force Game 7 they will have to play better in the 4th quarter, especially LeBron James. 5Dimes has the hometown Heat as 5-point favorites in Game 6 with a total of 187.
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