Opening Betting Line : Heat -7 / Thunder +7
Over/Under : 202
Time: 8 PM EST Wednesday March 16, 2011 on ESPN
The Heat may be back as legitimate title contenders in their recent run, as they snapped their 5-game losing streak by beating the defending champion Lakers and then after crushing Memphis they beat San Antonio by 30 points. The Thunder are also hot winning 4 straight and they finally have C Kendrick Perkins in the lineup after the big man came over in the trade with Boston. While the Thunder are led by league scoring leader Kevin Durant (28 ppg) and PG Russell Westbrook (22.2 ppg) Perkins may be a key in this game, as the Heat are not a good team in the paint.
Both teams played their last game on Tuesday night with the Heat crushing the San Antonio Spurs 110-80 and the Thunder killing the Washington Wizards 116-89.
This season the Thunder have been a slightly better betting team going 35-31 ATS while the Heat are 32-34-1 ATS.
Chris Bosh (18.4 ppg 8.2 rpg) has played great since stating he will demand the ball more and in the blowout win over San Antonio he had 30 points and 12 boards. He is averaging 24 ppg on 61.4% shooting and 10.3 rpg in the last 3 games. The other 2 of the Big 3 in LeBron James and Dwayne Wade also played well in the Spurs game combining for 50 points.
Bosh will not have an easy time tonight, as Perkins is a great defensive center and a monster in the lane. If he can keep Bosh from getting inside and force him to settle for outside J’s the Thunder have a good shot to win this game. Another thing they have going for them is that they play good perimeter defense and the Heat are a jump shooting team that ranks near the bottom of the league in points in the paint.
The Thunder have to step up on defense in this game, as when these 2 teams met in Oklahoma City the Heat beat the Thunder 108-103. Even though Durant went for 33 points in the game it is important that he scores, as in his last 4 games he has scored more than 30 points and the Thunder are 9-1 on the road this season when he scores at least 30 points.
Bosh and James will be counted on to hit the glass tonight, as Miami’s 2nd leading rebounder Udonis Haslem (8 rpg) and C Zydrunas Ilgauskas (4.3 rpg) are both out due to injuries.
In some betting trends for this non-conference match up:
Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games, and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
Miami is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5, and has an Under record of 5-2 in their last 5 home games.
Our Selection : Both of these teams have played well as of late and we don't see any huge edge in match-ups. So, we're going to play on the total. Bosh has started to play well giving the Heat the triple threat that they thought they had when they signed him in the offseason.
Take the OVER 202.5 at 5Dimes.
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat Odds 6-12
The Mavs are up 3-2 in this series heading to South Beach and for the Heat to force Game 7 they will have to play better in the 4th quarter, especially LeBron James. 5Dimes has the hometown Heat as 5-point favorites in Game 6 with a total of 187.
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