Arizona Wildcats vs Duke Blue Devils Betting Odds

Opening Line: Arizona +8.5 / Duke -8.5 Over/Under: 144.5

Time: 9:45 PM EST Thursday March 24, 2011 on CBS

No surprise Duke is in the Sweet 16, but it is a little surprise that Arizona got this far, especially since their best player struggled in the last game. Arizona star Derrick Williams did not shoot well in the Wildcats last game, but the Arizona supporting cast came up big. Duke has a great inside/outside game, but they did not play their best game in advancing the Sweet 16.

In their last games Duke beat Michigan 72-70 and Arizona beat Texas 70-69.

Both teams were pretty good betting teams this season with Duke at 20-15 ATS and Arizona at 18-15-1 ATS.

Arizona’s Derrick Williams may be a lottery pick in the upcoming NBA draft, but even though he was the high scorer for the Wildcats in the win over Texas he was only 4/14 from the floor and he missed all 3 of his 3-pt shots. Their 2nd leading scorer Lamont Jones was held to 0 points and Solomon Hill and reserve G Jordin Mayes saved the day combining for 32 points after combining for an average of 13.1 ppg this season. Against Duke and their solid frontcourt players Williams has to score and hit the boards or Arizona will be going home. He will need help on the glass, as the Wildcats only rank 193rd in the nation in rebounds per game while Duke ranks 26th.

Arizona’s defense will have their hands full in this game, big time, against Duke. G Nolan Smith was the high scorer in the Michigan game and he and stud freshman Kyrie Irving can’t be allowed to have big scoring games. One thing the Wildcats have going for them is that they have an athletic backcourt and they have to stay in front of the Duke guards and not let them penetrate in the lane, but they also cannot let them have open looks from deep.

In the Michigan win forwards Kyle Singler and Mason Plumlee combined for 15 boards and overall the Blue Devils had 12 more rebounds than the Wolverines and if that happens again Duke will move on. Arizona has to play like they did on the inside guys of Texas against Duke. If they don’t they will be in big trouble.

Arizona does not have much height inside and to offset that they will have to get out on the break for easy buckets and force Duke into committing turnovers.

Betting Trends

Arizona is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, and has an Under record of 6-0 in their last 6 games as an underdog.

Duke is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and has an Under record of 11-4 in their last 15 games.

Our Selection : Sure Duke has been nearly unbeatable all season, losing only 4 games all season. However they have lost 2 in their last 8 and just hung on versus Michigan in their last. The linesmaker must be expecting Blue Devils money to be pouring in before game time making Duke a 8.5 point fav. The Wildcats while not blowing out their competition have won 6 of their last 7 losing only by 2 in OT versus Washington. While we don't think tha Arizona will pull off the upset win, we do think that they will keep this game close and easly cover the spread. Take the Wildcats +8.5 at 5Dimes.