Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Odds

Opening Line: Duke -5.5 / North Carolina +5.5 O/U 155.5

Time: 9 PM EST Wednesday February 10, 2010 on ESPN

Tonight in, perhaps, the biggest rivalry in college basketball the North Carolina Tar Heels host the 7th ranked Duke Blue Devils. This is generally a match up of ranked teams that are fighting it out for the ACC crown, but not this season, as even though Duke leads the conference the wheels have fallen off for North Carolina. The Tar Heels have lost 6 of their last 7 games, including their last 3, and they are 4 games under .500 in ACC play.

Even though there is a lot of basketball to play this season this game is vital for the Tar Heels, as if they lose they will only be 2-7 in conference play and an invite to the Big Dance may be a long shot.

The Tar Heels are the defending national champion and were ranked 6th in the nation when the season began, but unless they win this game and keep winning it looks like they may be NIT bound.

This season North Carolina is 11-4 at home and 8-13 ATS and Duke is 2-4 on the road and 15-7 ATS.

In their last games Duke beat Boston College 66-63 on Saturday while North Carolina was crushed by Maryland 92-71 on Sunday.

Duke has lost 3 straight and 6 of their last 7 games against North Carolina.

Besides not playing well in their losing streak this is not a good match up for the Tar Heels, as they rank 10th in the ACC in 3-pt shooting defense allowing opponents to average 36.4% from downtown and Duke leads the ACC hitting on 39% of their 3-pt bombs.

North Carolina will have to win this game with their defense, as even though they are averaging over 80 ppg this season they are only averaging 69.8 ppg in their last 7 games.

Duke is averaging 81.4 ppg and G Jon Scheyer 18.9 ranks 2nd in the ACC in scoring, G Nolan Smith (18.1 ppg) ranks 3rd, and Kyle Singler (16.6 ppg) ranks 7th.

Tar Heels leading scorer Deon Thompson (14.4 ppg) has to have a good scoring game, but he has been held under 10 points in 3 of his last 7 games.

Duke is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games as the home favorite, and has an Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5.

North Carolina is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog, and has an Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 home games.

In this match up Duke is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games and the total has gone Over in 6 of the last 8 games in North Carolina.

Our Selection : The Tar Heels have not been a bettor's best friend lately covering only 2 games in their last 10 games and now face No. 7 Duke. The public is laying heavy on Duke's side, but we're going to go the other way. The Blue Devils are only 1-3 against the spread on the road in conference play. They're only 2-4 SU on the road this season and have actually been outscored by 3 points per game. This is a HUGE game for North Carolina, so we don't think that will be lacking in motivation.Take North Carolina +6