Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Odds

Opening Line: Kentucky -2.5 / Mississippi State +2.5 O/U 143

Time: 9 PM EST Tuesday February 16, 2010 on ESPN

Tonight in an important SEC match up, especially for MSU, the Mississippi State Bulldogs host the 2nd ranked Kentucky Wildcats. The Bulldogs have won 2 in a row and since they are 2 games above .500 in the SEC they look like they will get an invite to the Big Dance, but if they can win tonight they can, pretty much, punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament.

The Wildcats have won 5 straight and are in 1st place in the SEC. They are tournament bound, but if they lose this game it jeopardizes their chances to get a #1 seed.

This season MSU is 12-1 at home and 11-8-1 ATS and Kentucky is 4-1 on the road and 11-11 ATS.

Both teams played on Saturday and MSU beat Auburn 85-75 in OT and Kentucky beat Tennessee 73-62.

MSU has a 3-game winning streak against Kentucky.

There are only 2 players in the SEC that are averaging in double figures in both points and rebounds and they will be facing each other tonight. The match up between UK's DeMarcus Cousins (15.9 ppg 10.2 rpg) and MSU's Jarvis Varnado (13.3 ppg 11.3 rpg) is a big one, as each needs to play solid D against the other.

In the last 2 games between these 2 teams Varnado has 24 rebounds and 17 blocks.

MSU has a great defense, as they have only allowed an average of 62.6 ppg and they will have to play well tonight against a Kentucky offense that is averaging 81.3 ppg.

The MSU backcourt duo of Ravern Johnson (13.7 ppg) and Dee Bost (12 ppg) not only have to provide some offense in this game, but they also have to slow the tempo and not allow UK G John Wall (17 ppg) to have a big scoring game.

If the Bulldogs can slow down the running Wildcats they have a great chance to win this game.

Vanardo has to get some help inside in this game, as the Wildcats have a better frontcourt with Cousins and Patrick Patterson (14.7 ppg 7.3 rpg).

The Bulldogs are a great 3-point shooting team and the Kentucky backcourt has to play good perimeter defense tonight and now allow the MSU shooters to have open looks from deep.

Kentucky is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win, and has an Over record in 11-5 in their last 16 games.

MSU is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog, and has an Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 games.

In the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams the road team is 4-1 ATS.

Our Selection : This sets up as an interesting game with the 19-1 Wildcats visiting the Bulldogs who are 12 -1 at home. Mississippi State is unbeaten on home court in SEC play and really does need to win this game, so an argument could be made for the Bulldogs to pull of a modest upset of Kentucky. However, we're not going to bite on Mississippi State's motivational factors. Sure the Bulldogs have won all their conference games at home, but who did they beat? We're not talking the class of the SEC. They beat Arkansas by 2, the same team that Kentucky beat by 31. They beat 0-11 in SEC play LSU. They knocked off the Georgia Bulldogs by 3 who were 0-5 on the road and had to go to OT to knock off 3-7 Auburn. Betus has opened this game at Kentucky -3 and while we don't like being on the public side in any game, we're going to bite and make a small play on the superior team. Take Kentucky -3