Wisconsin Badgers at Indiana Hoosiers Betting Odds

Opening Line: Wisconsin -6 / Indiana +6 Over/Under: 129

Time: 9 PM EST Thursday March 3, 2011 on ESPN

10th ranked Wisconsin sits in third place in the Big 10 and while a conference title is unlikely, as is a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament, they can still get a good seed in the Big Dance if they finish the season strong. Indiana will not be going dancing this season, but if they finish the season well and play well in the conference tournament they may get a NIT bid.

While the Badgers will finish the regular season with an undefeated home record they are only 4-5 on the road. The main reason for their road woes has been their shooting, as at home they shot 49.2% from the floor as opposed to 40.4% on the road. While Indiana is a solid 12-5 at home this season they have lost their last 3 home games and their last 6 overall.

In their last games both teams played on Sunday, but with very different results, as Wisconsin had no problem beating Northwestern 78-63 while Indiana was crushed by Ohio State 82-61.

The Badgers have been a pretty solid betting team on the season at 14-10 while wagering on the Hoosiers has not been a good call since they are 10-13 ATS. Wisconsin has covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games facing Indiana.

Even if the Badgers shoot poorly they have a legit chance to win, as their defense ranks 2nd in the nation in opponents’ points allowed. They have won their last 3 road games, but they only shot 37.3% in that span.

Wisconsin has won 7 straight games against Indiana and they beat them at home this season 69-60 on January 20th.

Indiana’s defense only ranks 171st in the nation (68 ppg) and in their last 3 games they have played terrible defense giving up an average of 74.7 ppg.

Wisconsin is led by the solid inside/outside duo of F Jon Leuer (19.1 ppg 7.4 rpg) and G Jordan Taylor (17.8 ppg). Both of these guys can shoot the 3 and the Hoosiers cannot let them have open looks from deep. These guys combined to score 48 points in the win over the Hoosiers earlier this season.

For Indiana to pull off the upset they will need good games from Christian Watford (16.5 ppg) and Verdell Jones III (12.6 ppg). These 2 combined for 26 points in the blowout loss to Ohio State in their last game, but overall the Hoosiers only shot 38.5% from the floor.

Indiana shot over 50% in the loss earlier to Wisconsin so it is vital that they play good defense in this game and if they do not they will lose their 7th straight.

Betting Trends

Indiana is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games, and has an Under record of 5-0 in their last 5 home games.

Wisconsin is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.

Our Selection : On paper the Badgers should win this game going away and while we're not saying that they won't, we believe that the best play would be on the total. Sure the Badgers play solid defense, but Indiana scores well at home and their defense by anyone's standards is adequate at best. We feel that the linesmaker has erred on the total as we have this game hitting in the mid 130's. Take OVER 129 points at Bodog.