Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU Tigers Betting Preview

Opening point spread odds - total lines at 5Dimes : Crimson Tide -6.5 / Tigers +6.5 O/U TBA

Time: 8 PM EST Saturday November 6, 2010

To say this is a big SEC match up is like saying the BCS rankings system is easy to understand. Big understatement. Both Alabama (7-1) and LSU (7-1) are tied for 2nd in the SEC West and the loser is likely out of the conference title game and also out of the BCS bowl picture. Alabama can still win the conference if they win out, but besides LSU they face Auburn in their season finale. LSU can win the SEC West, but they must beat Alabama and then hope Auburn loses.

LSU is coming off their first loss of the season a couple weeks back to Auburn 24-17 and that was on October 23rd so they will have had 2 weeks to get ready for this huge game. Alabama also had this last Saturday off and in their previous game they slaughtered Tennessee 41-10.

This season Alabama is 5-3 ATS and LSU has not been the best betting team going 3-5 ATS. All the betting trends point towards the Tide covering the spread, as they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at LSU, the favorite is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings, and the road team is team is 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings.

Alabama has not lost to LSU since the 2007 season.

LSU will have to run the ball in this game to win since their passing offense is only ranked 113th in the nation. Their rushing attack is led by Stevan Ridley (723 yards 6 TD) and duel-threat QB Jordan Jefferson (281 yards 5 TD). There is a lot of pressure on Ridley in this game to move the chains and he has been struggling in the last month, as he has not cracked the 100-yard barrier in his last 3 games and in those games he has only averaged around 3 yards per carry. Alabama has the nation's 16th ranked rushing defense and if they can stuff the run they will be leaving LSU with a win.

Alabama has played great defense in their last 2 games since losing to South Carolina only giving up an average of 10 ppg. They have more balance on their offense since they can move the ball in the air and on the ground. They feature the RB duo of Trent Richardson (606 yards 5 TD) and last year's Heisman winner Mark Ingram (544 yards 8 TD), but QB Greg McElroy (1,781 yards 11 TD) may be the key in this game. Why? Well, LSU ranks 4th in the nation in rushing defense and 38th in pass defense.

In some other betting trends for this game:

Alabama is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games, and has an Over record of 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games.

LSU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning road record, and has an Under record of 11-1 in their last 12 home games.

In the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams the total has gone Over every time.

Our Selection : It's difficult for most teams to knock off the LSU Tigers on their home field and from a bettors perspective having to win by a TD to cash your wager is not going to be a fast track to retirement. However, the Crimson Tide have the running game and the defense to run away with this game. Alabama's weakness is their pass defense which is not something that the Tigers excel at. Take the Crimson Tide -6 at 5Dimes.


Future Betting Odds

NCAAF Handicapping

NCAAF Toolbox