South Florida Bulls at West Virginia Mountaineers Betting Preview

Opening point spread odds - total lines at 5Dimes : Bulls +10.5 / Mountaineers -10.5 O/U 43

Time: 7:30 PM EST Thursday, October 14, 2010 on ESPN/ESPN3

West Virginia (4-1) got over their first loss of the season a couple weeks back at the hands of LSU and this Thursday night they host South Florida (3-2), who has not got off to a good start in Big East play already 0-1 in the conference. This game is the first Big East contest for West Virginia. South Florida's only wins this season have not been impressive beating up on a couple teams from a weak Sun Belt conference and FCS D1AA Stony Brook.

West Virginia has lost 3 out of their last 4 games against South Florida and in the last 4 games between these 2 teams betting on the Bulls has been a good call, as they have covered the spread every time.

In their last games South Florida was upset losing to Syracuse 13-9 and West Virginia beat UNLV 49-10.

Heading into this Big East match up South Florida is 2-3 ATS and West Virginia is 3-2 ATS.

The Bulls will have to run the ball to win this game, as they only have the nation's 103rd ranked passing offense. Their rushing offense ranks 43rd in the nation led by the RB duo of Moise Plancher and Demetris Murray. Murray has been bothered by an ankle injury and this duo must play better than they did against Syracuse when they only combined for 88 yards. However, that will be a tall task this Saturday against West Virginia and their 9th ranked rushing defense.

Bulls' QB B.J. Daniels had a horrible game against Syracuse only going 9/23 for 124 yards with 0 TD and 2 INT and he has to connect on some passes and not turn the ball over in this game.

West Virginia has a balanced offense ranking 55th in the nation in passing yards per game and 54th in rushing yards per game. South Florida's defense ranks 18th in the nation and their main concerns are Mountaineers QB Geno Smith (1,139 yards 12 TD) and RB Noel Devine (475 yards 4 TD 5.3 yards per carry).

Look for Devine to have a big day, as the Bulls' D is much better defending the pass than the run.

In an interesting trend it seems the WVU offense plays well on Thursday, as in their last 7 games on that day the total has gone Over 5 times.

South Florida is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Big East games and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 road games.

West Virginia is 5-0 in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record and has an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning road record.

Our Selection : This game opened at 12 and has been quickly bet down to 10.5 at most sportsbooks. Bettors must be playing on the head to head angle of the past 4 years with the Bulls covering 4 straight. We're not buying into that angle.

South Florida has averaged 280.7 total yards per game in their four lined matchups this season. Their rushing attack is adequate but now face the Mountaineers 9th ranked offense run D which is allowing only 86.8 YPG. We'd really like to have seen a 10 on this game and that may be available by game time. But, we're going to bite on the 10.5 line. Our thought is that South Florida will be hard pressed to put up 10.
Take West Virginia -10.5 at 5Dimes.


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