Opening Line: Florida -3 / South Carolina +3 O/U 42
Time: Saturday October 20, 2012 3:30 PM EST
South Carolina ATS / Over/Under: 5-1 ATS O/U 4-3 Florida ATS / Over/Under: 5-1 ATS O/U 2-4
Florida (6-0) is only 1 win away from matching their win total from last season, but getting there soon will be tough, as after facing 7th ranked South Carolina (5-1) they face 13th ranked Georgia next week. The Gamecocks are coming off their first loss of the season where their top 2 offensive stars in RB Marcus Lattimore and QB Connor Shaw did not play well. If South Carolina loses this game it will be their 2nd loss in the SEC and they will probably be out of the BCS Bowl picture.
South Carolina's offense has a tall task in this game trying to move the chains on a Florida defense that ranks 6th in the nation.
The Gators are dealing with some injuries, as a couple of offensive lineman and WR Latroy Pittman are likely out for this big game. The Gators have a solid rushing attack and that is the strength of their offense. Jeff Driskel set a Florida QB rushing record in his last game galloping for 177 yards and he and RB Mike Gillislee (615 yards 7 TD) are the key players the Gamecocks and their 21st ranked run defense.
Stopping the run is key for South Carolina since the Gators only rank 118th in the country in passing yards per game. In the loss to LSU the Gamecocks gave up 258 rushing yards.
Connor Shaw threw 2 INT in the 4th quarter in the LSU game and those picks were costly. He also was sacked 4 times and he needs a better performance from his offensive line in this game. Shaw has a couple of big play receivers in Damiere Byrd and Bruce Ellington, who are each averaging over 17 yards per catch on the season. The Gators rank 22nd in the nation in pass defense.
Marcus Lattimore has 584 yards with 10 TD on the season and he is a little banged up and may start in this game. Kenny Miles and freshman Mike Davis will get the carries if Lattiomore cannot go, but that will be a big blow if their lead back cannot play since Miles and Davis have combined for only 217 rushing yards.
South Carolina has won 2 straight facing Florida and they have never won 3 straight against the Gators.
South Carolina at Florida Betting Trends
South Carolina is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games, 4-0 in their last 4 SEC games, and they have an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Florida is 5-0 in their last 5 games, 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games, and they have an Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 games at home.
Florida is only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against South Carolina.
Pick: Florida has the defense, but I think South Carolina is a better team all around and Shaw will bounce back and have a good game and the Gamecocks will win and hand the Gators their first loss of the season.