Opening point spread odds - total lines at 5Dimes : Sun Devils +6 / Wildcats -6 O/U 55
Time: 8 PM EST Thursday December 2, 2010 on ESPN / ESPN3
The annual Duel in the Desert between Arizona (7-4) and Arizona State (5-6) may be more important for the Sun Devils, as if they win they will be bowl eligible and if they lose head coach Dennis Erickson may be out since he is on the hot seat. Arizona will be playing in a bowl, but they have lost 3 straight and if they do not right their ship and win this game they will not be playing in a great bowl game. The Sun Devils have lost 3 of their last 5 games and they are 0-3 this season against ranked teams.
In their last games Arizona State kept their bowl hopes alive in a solid 55-34 win over UCLA while Arizona lost to top-ranked Oregon 48-29.
While Arizona State has had a season to forget they have been a solid betting team going 7-2-2 ATS on the season while Arizona is 6-5 ATS. ASU has covered the spread 5 times in their last 7 games against Arizona and the Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games between these 2 Pac 10 rivals.
For Arizona State to pull off the upset in this game their 12th ranked passing offense has to play well. Starting QB Steven Threet was injured in the first half of the UCLA win and backup Brock Osweiler came in and lit the Bruins up for 380 passing yards and 4 TD. Whoever, is under center for the Sun Devils will have to play well facing Arizona’s 36th ranked passing defense. ASU does not have a great rushing offense, but RB Cameron Marshall, who rushed for 147 yards last week, can take a lot of pressure off his QB by picking up some yards on the ground. Last week in the loss to Oregon gave up 389 rushing yards and if they give up a ton of yards on the ground again their losing streak will likely hit 4.
Arizona racked up 506 yards of offense last week in the loss to Oregon and QB Nick Foles had a HUGE day passing for 448 yards with 3 TD and 1 INT. This game is not a good match up for the Arizona State defense, as they are legit stopping the run with the nation’s 17th ranked rushing defense, but they only rank 98th defending the pass. If the Sun Devils cannot keep Foles from lighting up the scoreboard they may be in for a long night.
In some other betting trends for this Pac 10 game:
Arizona State is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games, 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog, and has an Under record of 15-5 in their last 20 road games.
Arizona is 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10, and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Our Selection : We're going to play the classic angle of two teams going in opposite directions. While both of these teams are 2-3 straight up in their last 5, the Sun Devils were fighting right up to the last whistle in two of their 3 losses (Stanford by 4 and USC by 1). They also need a win to be bowl eligible, so the motivation factor definitely favors Arizona State. Take the Sun Devils +6 at 5Dimes.
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