Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots Betting Preview
Opening Line: Ravens +3.5 / Patriots -3.5
Time: 1 PM EST Sunday January 10, 2010 on CBS
The New England Patriots host the Baltimore Ravens in the first round of the AFC playoffs. The Patriots did not lose at home all season (8-0), but they suffered a major blow in their last game when they lost WR Wes Welker to major knee injury. That may hurt Tom Brady and the Pats, as he has been a stud for the last few years. The Ravens won their season finale and they won by running the ball and if they run the ball like they did in the last game they may pull off the upset. This game features the legit offense of the Patriots against the solid defense of the Ravens.
This season New England was 8-0 at home and 8-7-1 ATS and Baltimore was 3-5 on the road and 8-6-2 ATS.
In their last games of the season the Patriots lost to the Houston Texans 34-27 while the Ravens beat the Oakland Raiders 21-13.
Tom Brady leads the Patriots and their 3rd ranked offense. Even though Welker is out they do have RB Fred Taylor back from a knee injury and he may need to help Brady out since he will be without one of his big guns. The Ravens may key on Randy Moss to stop the big play, so the running game may be open. Brady can light up the scoreboard and if he does that in this game the Pats are in good shape since the Ravens do not have a high-scoring offense. The Ravens have the league's 3rd ranked defense and they are solid defending both the pass and the run. If the Ravens can contain Brady and make this a low scoring game they have a great shot at handing New England their first home loss of the season.
The Ravens and their 13th ranked offense is led by 2nd year QB Joe Flacco, but the key to Baltimore winning this game is not only their defense, but their ability to run the ball. RB Willis McGahee had 167 rushing yards in the last game of the season and he averaged a very impressive 10.4 yards per carry so he will be key in this game. If the Pats and their 11th ranked defense contains the Raven's rushing game and forces Flacco to beat them with his arm they should win this game. Flacco does have a decent WR corps, but if Baltimore can't run the ball they will be in trouble.
Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0 points and is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff road games.