Opening Line: Patriots -7/ Denver +7 O/U 51.5
Date/Time: Sunday October 7, 2012 4:25 PM CBS
Denver Broncos ATS / Over/Under: 2-2 ATS O/U 2-2
New England Patriots ATS / Over/Under: 3-1 ATS O/U 2-2
This game, obviously, is all about Tom Brady facing Peyton Manning and with these 2 great QB's this game may come down to which team can bring the pass rush and play good pass defense. Both teams are 2-2 and the Pats are 0-1 at home and the Broncos are 0-1 on the road.
Both Brady and Manning had great games last week with very similar stats and each got help from their rushing offense. While the Broncos have a pretty balanced defense the Patriots do not, as they rank 8th in the league defending the run, but only 25th defending the pass.
We all know Brady has a great WR combo in Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd and they also have TE's that can move the chains. When the Pats were shocked at home losing to Arizona Brady was taken down several times and the Broncos will need to do that led by Von Miller (3 sacks) and DE Elvis Dumervil (2.5 sacks).
Pats' RB Stevan Ridley has rushed for over 100 yards twice this season, including last week, and in both of those games he played weak defenses and when playing solid ones he has struggled. Denver played great run D in their win over the Raiders and if they can stuff the run Brady will have to shoulder the offensive load.
Manning had a great game against the Raiders and this season his top 2 WR's of Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are playing well. The Denver offensive line has a tall task in this game and the Pats' bring LB's Brandon Spikes, Dont'a Hightower and Jerod Mayo up to the line often making it hard to run.
Willis McGahee also had a great game against the Raiders rushing for 165 yards and he gives Manning a legit RB, which he never really had in Indy. The Pats have a good run defense and they held C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson in check last week in their win over the Bills.
The Patriots have won 3 of their last 4 games facing the Broncos including beating them in the regular season and playoffs last season.
Broncos at Patriots Betting Trends
The Broncos are 3-7 in their last 10 games and they have an Under record of 6-0 in their last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
The Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games and they have an Over record of 15-7 in their last 22 home games.
Pick: I think this will be a good game, but have to go with Brady and company at home, as the Pats will win this home game and cover the 7-point spread.
Take this ATS Pick @ Bodog.ca
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