Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears Betting Preview
Opening Line: Packers -3.5
Total Odds: 43
Time: 3 PM EST Sunday January 23, 2011 on FOX
The Packers vs. Bears rivalry is the longest one in the NFL, as these NFC North rivals have faced each other 181 times and the 182nd time may be the biggest, as the winner will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. These teams played twice in the regular season with each winning at home. The Bears have a tall task in this game containing Aaron Rodgers, who has been spectacular in the playoffs so far.
This season Chicago is 10-6-1 ATS and the Green Bay is 11-7 ATS. The Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in Chicago.
Rodgers had almost a perfect game last week in the 48-21 win over the Falcons going 31/36 for 366 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT. The WR combo of Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings combined for 16 catches for 180 yards and a TD. Rodgers and his WR corps will be facing a Bears’ pass defense that gave up 242 yards to Seattle last week in their 35-24 divisional playoff win. That is why it is vital that the Bears’ defense, led by the LB duo of Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs and DE Julius Peppers, pressures Rodgers in the pocket.
Green Bay RB James Starks rushed for 123 yards in the first playoff win over the Eagles and last week against the Falcons he rushed for 66 yards, but only averaged 2.6 yards per carry. He can take some pressure off Rodgers if he can run the ball in this game, but that will not be easy against a Chicago run defense that ranks 2nd in the league and only gave up 34 rushing yards last week against Seattle.
The big keys for the Bears’ offense are their line and Matt Forte. Cutler had a good game last week passing for 274 yards with 2 TD and rushing for a couple of TD’s, but it is vital that his offensive line protects him. He was sacked last week twice and in the last game of the season against the Packers he was sacked 6 times. Even if he is given protection it will not be easy picking up yards against a Green Bay pass defense that ranks 5th in the league. The Packers’ feature All Pro CB Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams, who has 3 picks in the playoffs.
Matt Forte has to help Cutler out and even though the Packers only have the league’s 18th ranked run defense they held the Falcons to only 45 rushing yards last week.
The Packers’ special teams’ defense has to keep Bears’ return man Devin Hester in check, as in the week 3 win over the Packers he ran back a punt for a TD. Also, the Packers gave up a 102 yards TD on a kick return last week in Atlanta.
In some other betting trends for the NFC Championship game:
Chicago is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, and has an Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10, and has an Under record of 8-2 in their last 10 road games.
In both the games between these 2 teams this season the total went Under the posted total.
Our Selection : These two teams split their earlier match-ups with both teams getting the win on their home fields. The Bears covered the spread in both games which included a Week 17 trip to Green Bay where the Packers were all out to beat Chicago. Green Bay had all the motivation in that game as they needed the win to make the playoffs while the Bears had locked up the number 2 seed and has nothing to gain. The linesmakers have over inflated this line after the Packers went into Atlanta and spanked the Falcons last week. Here's what the oddsmakers are saying to you. Green Bay would be a 6.5 point favorite on a neutral field or a 9.5 point favorite at home. It was proven in Week 17 playing at home that the Packers with everything on the line couldn't dominate the Bears What has changed since then besides public perception? Take the Bears +4 at Bodog.