Opening Line: Houston -4 / Green Bay + 4 O/U 48
Time: Sunday October 14, 2012 8:20 PM EST
Packers ATS / Over/Under: 1-4 ATS O/U 3-2
Texans ATS / Over/Under: 3-2 ATS O/U 2-3
Last Games: The Texans beat the New York Jets 23-17 while the Packers lost to the Indianapolis Colts 30-27.
The Packers are off to a surprising 2-3 start and last season's MVP Aaron Rodgers has not looked like the QB he was last season. He has been sacked already 20 times and has 4 picks already. On top of that he may have to do it all on offense facing the solid Houston defense since lead RB Cedric Benson is out for this game with an injury.
Texans are with the Falcons as the last 2 unbeaten teams in the NFL and they have been playing great on both offense and defense. Speaking of defense the Texans took a big hit, as in their last game they lost LB Brian Cushing for the season and he leads the team in tackles.
Rodgers passed for 303 yards in the last week's loss to the Colts and he has a couple of great targets in the WR duo of Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. His receivers have had way too many drops this season and his O-line has not given him much protection. Both of these things are major issues heading into this non-conference game since the Texans have the league's 4th ranked pass defense and their pass rush has the 6th most sacks.
Man, things in the backfield are a mess for the Packers, as Benson is out, Rodgers is the team's 2nd leading rusher, and the starter for this game will be Alex Green, who has 54 rushing yards. Not good facing a Texans run D that ranks 9th in the league.
Not only is Benson out, but also TE Jermichael Finley, DT B.J. Raji, and WR Greg Jennings are all questionable for the game.
The Texans only rank 20th in the league in passing yards per game, but Matt Schaub is still playing great and he has a great duo in WR Andre Johnson and TE Owen Daniels. The Green Bay pass defense ranks 17th in the league and they have really struggled in the last couple games. Last week they allowed the Colts' QB Andrew Luck to pass for 345 yards.
Green Bay is tied with Cincinnati and Chicago for the most sacks in the league (18) and their pass rush, which is led by LB Clay Mathews (8), need to get to Schaub in the pocket and not let him pick apart the struggling Packers' secondary.
Adrian Foster has rushed for over 100 yards in 3 of the last 4 games and he may reach that barrier again facing a Packers' run D that ranks 17th in the league.
Betting Trends for this non-conference match up.
It is interesting that the Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games with a winning record, but those 2 ATS losses were in the last 2 games. They have failed to cover in their last 4 games on the road and have an Over record of 12-4 in their last 16 games.
The Texans are 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games, 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games facing a team with a losing record, and they have an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 games facing a team with a losing record.
Pick: Yeah, the Texans are undefeated and are legit, but something tells me Aaron Rodgers will have a great game and the Packers will win and get back to .500 on the season.
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