New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Lines

Opening Line: Packers -8
Over/Under: 54

Sunday September 30, 2012 4:25 PM EST

New Orleans Saints ATS / Over/Under: 0-3 ATS O/U 2-1
Green Bay Packers ATS / Over/Under: 1-2 ATS O/U 1-2

Last Games: The Packers lost to the Seattle Seahawks 14-12 and the Saints lost to the Kansas City Chiefs 27-24 in Overtime.

Are you kidding me, the Saints are 0-3 and the Packers are 1-2? Wow, nobody saw that coming and on top of that after going undefeated at home last season the Saints have lost their first 2 games in the Big Easy this season. Drew Brees has been playing decent this season, but he has 7 TD and 5 INT and the New Orleans' defense and rushing offense has struggled.


The Packers need to forget about the Monday night fiasco, which cost them the game, and get down to business at home this Sunday. Aaron Rodgers won the MVP last season, but he has gotten off to a slow start this season with only 3 TD and 2 INT in 3 games.

Rodgers has several solid targets, but can he stay upright. He leads the league with being sacked 16 times. However, a couple of things he has going for him is that the Saints pass rush is mediocre at best with only 6 sacks and the pass defense only ranks 25th in the league. If Rodgers is given time in the pocket he may have a big game like he did in last season's match up with the Saints.

Cedric Benson has not helped out Rodgers much on offense only averaging 3.1 yards per carry. He may be able to have his first good game in a Packers' uniform this Sunday facing a New Orleans rushing defense that ranks last in the NFL and gave up 233 yards on the ground to the Arizona in last week's loss.

Drew Brees is putting up solid yardage numbers, but only 7 TD and 5 picks? That is not like him and he needs to start finding the end zone and not turn the ball over. Like the Packers the Saints have a good WR corps and a solid TE in Jimmy Graham. The Packers have the league's top ranked pass defense and led by Clay Mathews (6 sacks) they have the 2nd most sacks in the league. Brees will need good play from his line in this big NFC early season game.

Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles led the Saints to the 6th best run defense last season, but this season they only rank 22nd. They will be facing a Green Bay run defense that has struggled only ranking 26th in the league.

Key Betting Trends

The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games after a loss, and in they have an Over record of 7-1 in their last 8 games overall.

The Packers are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games facing a team with a winning record and they have an Over record of 15-6 in their last 21 games.

Pick: I think Brees and Rodgers will look like the QB's we are used to seeing, but the Packers have the better D and they will win and cover the 8-point spread.

Take Packers -8 @ Bodog.ca


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